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Every estimate made from a survey carries a margin of error (MoE). We calculate it in the standard way, known as the Wald method: we take the estimate’s standard error, a measure of how much the estimate would vary from one sample to another, and multiply it by 1.96. The estimate plus or minus that amount gives a range we can be 95 percent confident contains the true figure. The range reflects only sampling error, the uncertainty that comes from surveying some voters rather than all of them, and not other kinds of error (such as whether there are differences in the composition of those who answer surveys and those who don’t).